YOU, EGYPT, AND REVOLUTION
· We see and hear the word “revolution” tossed around a lot. There’s the technology revolution, the information revolution, the sexual revolution, the Internet revolution, the social media revolution and on and on. You get the point. It’s too bad because that sort of inundation tends to make us numb to the real thing—when an actual revolution is at hand, as in Egypt, we dismiss or look right past it.
· The dictionary definition of revolution is to revolve, a turning. I think that’s a good thing to keep in mind as you sort out the media’s hackneyed use of the word from the more substantive and meaningful applications of it.
· I think it’s important to distinguish between change and revolution. Change is smaller scale, less intense. By contrast, revolution is pervasive, sweeping, a kind of swirling motion that sucks up people and events nearby; it is also more foreboding than change, rife with negative possibilities but similarly possessing great potential. It also strikes me that because it’s bigger in scale and more elongated, revolution is likely to have different, independent sections or phases within it. Many of the items I’ll describe below fit the dynamic of revolution as something bigger, wider, and more intense than change.
· A revolution often begins when something small or incidental expresses a very large trend or force that has been building but hasn’t yet reached an explosion point (note I didn’t say tipping point, that’s too mild for revolution). The explosion point is reached when the particular small incident happens. A leader needs to know how to move quickly in such moments and also understand how to balance that speed against an ability to stop, reflect, and decide.
· The start and the starting stages of a revolution will feature groups that are only haphazardly organized. Indeed, in hindsight, the early stages of revolution will look far more disorganized than not. Those groups and entities that are organized and which embody or symbolize the revolution will succeed early; those which don’t won’t. But in the heat of the moment, disorganization will be prevalent, the rule rather than the exception. Everything for the leader will pertain to organization—how to achieve it or how to adapt to not achieving it.
· The tendency of the major groups in opposition to revolution will be to take half-steps in an attempt to appease revolutionary forces and retard revolutionary momentum. For the leader, the key question will be to measure the half—is it enough? Can I go further?
· There will be a key moment toward the end of the early parts of revolution. That moment will be this for the leader—is it time to act radically? How do I respond to the radical actions of others? The events around this moment will likely mark the end of the beginning and the beginning of the next stage. A leader will need to account for himself or herself and reach a reckoning of their both their individual and their collective visions.
· As it moves from opening to mid-stage, the revolution will pick up speed in its circular motion, like a tornado. In that speed some people and things on the outside will be drawn in. Some people and things on the inside will be thrust out. This sweeping, vast mid-point or mid-stage will represent much of the most intense, overwhelming rate of change within the revolution. The simultaneous actions, the twins, of destruction and creation will occur now. Among pounding rate of change will be the rise and fall of individual leaders, all at blinding speed. A leader will either need to deal with numerous new faces or face the challenge of coping with his or her own decline.
· Curiously, because geography and spaces are part of revolution, this frenzied portion may co-exist with lulls or lapses in other places. The pace of the revolution there may sink into a kind of bleak stalemate. For leaders in these stalemates, the temptation will be to slide into a near-permanent state of despair or trying to pull the place toward the frenzied side of the revolution.
· It’s in the mid-point/mid-stage that revolution will likely feature a counter-revolution, a powerful movement either in direct opposition to the revolution or an alteration to the original revolution itself. This may be where the revolution becomes a civil war. The counter-revolution may become a distinct set of events, a revolution within a revolution. For the leader, counter-revolution will involve the confrontation of old relationships and old ideas in new forms. These forms may be shocking.
· The stages of revolution take a lot of time to unfold and reach a new condition. When it’s exhausted, the revolution will have taken people to a different place in their attitude, outlook, and state of mind. For leaders, revolution may be their most challenging, defining event.
